Research Editions · Jamie Index Framework · Civil War Net Score
Jamie.Capital Research · Edition 18 · May 2026

Civil War Net Score

A quantitative instrument for measuring structural proximity to civil conflict · 0–7 scale

6/7 Published Final · Edition 18 · May 2026
38Raw (pre-round)
10÷4 (banker)
MV < 5Cap binds at 6 ADR 0002
Under-the-hood pressure rose this edition (LG 6→7 ceiling; IC 6→7 ceiling) but the cap continues to bind because MV holds at 3. The gap between Pre-Round (10) and the cap-bound Final (6) is the widest in CWNS.A history. MV is now the single decisive variable for outbreak signalling.

"This takes you back to the pre-civil war period. King Charles I was saying, 'I can levy any taxes I want.' Parliament said, 'No, you can't.' They caught a civil war on this. Now what have we got? We have somebody who says, 'I can levy tariffs at will.' Tariffs are taxes."

Martin Wolf, Financial Times
Wolf's Precision

Not 1688 (resolution) but 1641 (the sequence). The fiscal confrontation between executive and legislature is not the cause — it is the trigger that activates a conflict that has been structurally loaded for 400 years.

Part I — The Formula

How the Score Is Constructed

CWNS = round( (MV + LG + IC + MF + TI + VA − GB − CE) ÷ 4 )
Scale: 0–7  ·  Civil war threshold: 7  ·  One rule: if MV < 5, maximum score is 6

Full methodology paper: CWNS_Jamie_Capital_Research.pdf

The Eight Variables — Current Reading

Military Violence (MV)
3 / 7
Active external conflict, not yet internal. Threshold rule: MV < 5 caps score at 6.
Legislative Gridlock (LG)
7 / 7
Ceiling reached Ed 18. Six failed war-powers resolutions over the 60-day Iran-war window; 1 May WPR deadline bypassed via "hostilities ended" legal fiction.
Institutional Capture (IC)
7 / 7
Ceiling reached Ed 18. 31 district-court orders violated in 15 months; "Appellate Void" — Pentagon purges, Trump v. Slaughter pending.
Media Fragmentation (MF)
7 / 7
Algorithms score 7/7. Two points higher than pamphlets in 1641 (5/7).
Theological Intensity (TI)
7 / 7
Values absolutism functioning as religious conflict did in 1641.
Values Absolutism (VA)
7 / 7
Woke/unwoke divide as structural analogue to Puritan/Anglican conflict.
Geographic Buffer (GB) — mitigating
0 / 7
No meaningful faction separation. Identical to England 1641.
Common Enemy (CE) — mitigating
0 / 7
No unifying external threat. Identical to England 1641.

In 2026, the amplification mechanism (Media Fragmentation) is two points higher than in the year before the English Civil War. Variable by variable, pre-civil war England (1641) and US 2026 are nearly identical. The single divergence: algorithms score 7/7; pamphlets scored 5/7.

Part II — 400-Year Calibration

Historical Record

CWNS Historical Calibration · 1600–2028
01234567 7/7 outbreak threshold English Civil War1642 · 7/7 US Civil War1860 · 7/7 American Revolution1776 · 6/7 Ed 18 · NOW6 / 7 (cap) 7/7Q4 2027projected 160016501700175018001850190019502000 2026
PeriodScoreStatusNote
1641–427/7OutbreakEnglish Civil War. MF = pamphlets (5/7). All other variables identical to US 2026.
17766/7Pre-outbreakAmerican Revolution. Geographic buffer (Atlantic Ocean) mitigated the score.
1860–617/7OutbreakUS Civil War. All threshold variables met. Outbreak followed.
2026 · Ed 186/7NowCap-bound. Raw = 38, Pre-Round = 10. MV (3) below outbreak threshold = cap binds at 6. LG and IC both reached ceiling Ed 18. The 4-pt gap between Pre-Round (10) and Final (6) is the widest in CWNS.A history.
Part III — Research

Published Research

Substack · jamieindex.substack.com
1
Published

Wolf's correction of Krugman: not 1688 but 1641. Establishes the six-stage Charles I pattern and maps it onto the Trump/USA 2026 sequence.

2
Published

The English Civil War was overlaid with religious conflict. The contemporary woke/unwoke divide as its structural analogue. Money can be divided; doctrine cannot.