The Jamie Scenario & the Jamie Index
The name "Jamie" carries two distinct things, and the distinction matters.
The Jamie Scenario told you what to expect. The Jamie Index tells you where things stand.
Why the Name "Jamie"?
The name operates on two levels simultaneously — and this duality is intentional.
Two Jamies. Six Months Apart.
Jamie Coats built the scenario in March 2024.
Jamie Dimon independently signalled the same concern in October 2024.
1. The Developer's Name
Most directly, the Jamie Index is named for its creator. Jamie Coats developed the four-scenario framework (Stability, Watch, Elevated, High Alert, Critical), the 0–100 scoring methodology, and the time-dated trajectory analysis that constitutes the index. It is his intellectual property, his analytical framework, and his ongoing research programme.
2. The "Jamie Scenario" — Elite Concern Made Measurable
The name simultaneously references the concern that Jamie Dimon articulated on October 24, 2024 — a concern that Jamie Coats had already independently developed six months prior. Dimon has not endorsed or reviewed the Jamie Index; his comments are cited as independent evidence that the most senior institutional figures in global finance share serious concerns about nuclear war and Russian aggression. Speaking at the Institute of International Finance, Dimon declared that "World War III has already begun" and revealed that JPMorgan had modelled scenarios so severe he did not want to describe them publicly:
JPMorgan had built the scenarios — but was not sharing them. For Coats, who had already mapped the same trajectory in March 2024, this underscored a critical gap: the institution with the greatest resources to model global catastrophic risk had confirmed the danger but offered the public no framework for understanding where things stood.
If JPMorgan won't share their scenarios, someone should. Coats had already done the work. Dimon's decision not to release JPMorgan's modelling made the case for a public, quantified, transparent framework that anyone could consult. The Jamie Index was the answer. One Jamie told the world to be concerned but kept the detail within the bank. The other Jamie — who had already built his scenario — chose to make his analysis publicly available. The Jamie Index exists because a warning without measurement is just anxiety; measurement without transparency is just data; and the public deserves both.
Origin Timeline
About Jamie Coats
Jamie Coats is CEO of Wise Responder, Inc., which holds the exclusive worldwide license from Oxford University Innovation for the Business Multidimensional Poverty Index using the Alkire-Foster methodology. The company empowers corporations, investors, and governments to measure and reduce poverty through rigorous, metrics-driven social impact assessment.
As co-founder of SOPHIA Oxford, a not-for-profit partner of the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), Jamie spearheaded the testing and commercialisation of OPHI's methodology, ultimately leading to Wise Responder's spinout and incorporation.
Jamie is Senior Partner and co-founder of the joint venture between Wise Responder, H&P Solutions Brazil, and Sophia Oxford — a partnership providing tools to help companies transform social data into decisions and decisions into impact.
Jamie is a frequent speaker on corporate sustainability, impact investing, and ESG data. He co-authored the 2022 Citi GPS report "Eliminating Poverty: The Importance of a Multidimensional Approach in Tackling SDG 1." His poetry collection, The Candle Trilogy, was published in Untamed Gospel (2017) by the Dean of Christ Church College, Oxford.
He serves on the boards of the Lady Doak College Foundation (Boston) and Episcopalians for Global Reconciliation, and was a twenty-year Trustee of The Trustees of Donations to the Protestant Episcopal Church in Massachusetts and a member of the Senior Common Room at Harris Manchester College, Oxford University. Jamie holds a BA in History from the University of London and began his career at Business in the Community, London.
Methodology & Transparency
The Jamie Index rests on three markers: Marker I (Trump Elected President — confirmed November 2024), Marker II (Executive-Security State Fracture), and Marker III (Russian Opportunistic Aggression). The composite score uses the conditional probability formula: JI = (0.6 × Marker II) + (0.4 × Marker III).
Every historical edition is scored using only information publicly available at or before the observation date. Sources are verified against a minimum of two independent outlets. The backtest covers 22 months from April 2024 to the inaugural February 2026 reading, demonstrating a 12× increase in P(Crisis) during this period.
For complete methodology details, see the Methodology document (PDF). The methodology document is protected intellectual property.
Contact
For inquiries about the Jamie Index or Jamie.Capital Research:
team@jamiecapital.com
Current monthly reading: jamiecapital.com
Subscribe for updates: jamieindex.substack.com