Established February 2026 · Inaugural Reading: Jamie Index 63 · This page does not update
Full methodology paper: JI_Methodology.pdf
The Jamie Index is a quantified, monthly-updated measure of the conditional probability of a US–Russia crisis scenario. It is not a sentiment survey, a volatility gauge, or a news-cycle tracker. It is a structural index — built on indicators that change slowly, measured against explicit thresholds, and scored using only information available at the observation date.
Two distinct things. The Jamie Scenario is the geopolitical worst-case framework Jamie Coats developed in March 2024. The Jamie Index is the formal 0–100 measurement instrument he established in February 2026. The Scenario came first — the Index formalises it.
Inaugural calculation: (0.6 × 68) + (0.4 × 55) = 40.8 + 22.0 = Jamie Index 63
Crucially: Marker II was effectively zero in October 1962. Kennedy commanded complete institutional unity — full military obedience, bipartisan Congressional support. The CMC was the most dangerous nuclear confrontation in history; it resolved successfully; and the composite Jamie Index equivalent peaked at only 32.
| Marker III Cluster | Weight | Phase 1 Onset | Phase 2 Black Sat. | Phase 3 Resolution | Key Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear Posture | 30% | 3.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | DEFCON 2 (highest ever declared); B-59 nuclear torpedo nearly fired. |
| NATO Cohesion | 20% | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | Near-zero across all phases. OAS unanimous. NATO fully behind the US throughout. |
| Russian Military Positioning | 25% | 2.4 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 42,000 Soviet troops in Cuba; 4 Foxtrot submarines with nuclear torpedoes. |
| Opportunism Window | 25% | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | Russian reading of US disarray was near-zero — Kennedy had complete institutional unity. |
| Marker III Composite | 48 | 79 | 14 | Black Saturday = 79. Full composite: Onset ≈ 19, Black Saturday ≈ 32, Resolution ≈ 6. |
CMC Black Saturday: Marker III = 79, Marker II ≈ 0 → Composite Jamie Index ≈ 32. The February 2026 inaugural reading of Jamie Index 63 is nearly double the most dangerous 24 hours in nuclear history — not because Russian aggression today exceeds 1962 levels, but because the institutional architecture that resolved the CMC can no longer be assumed.
The Cuban Missile Crisis resolved because Kennedy had complete institutional unity: full military obedience, no personnel purges, bipartisan Congressional support. The back-channel worked because there was no ambiguity about who controlled US foreign policy. In 2026, Marker II sits at 89. The resolution mechanism has been substantially degraded.
The backtest demonstrates a 12× increase in P(Crisis) over 22 months — from 3% (Stability band, April 2024) to 40% (High Alert band, February 2026). The Jamie Index rose from 5 to 63 over this period.
From January 2025 (Jamie Index 42) to February 2026 (Jamie Index 63): +21 points in 13 months = 1.62 pts/month.
To reach Critical band entry (JI 81) from JI 63 requires 18 further points. At 1.62 pts/month: approximately 11 months → January 2027 under baseline.
Under every modelled scenario at the time of the February 2026 inaugural edition, Critical band entry (Jamie Index 81) was projected before the end of 2028. There was no scenario in the February 2026 dataset where the Jamie Index reverses without structural regime change.
This Model page is a static reference. The Jamie Index is updated monthly. For the current reading and updated trajectory projections, subscribe on Substack or visit the homepage.
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