The Jamie Index
The index sits at 78 — inside the HIGH band, two points from the Critical threshold (80). The conditional probability of a US–Russia crisis stands at 50%.
The entire May move was driven by Marker II alone — US institutional fracture, now at 89. Both Chilling Effect indicators reached ceiling this edition (Pentagon-wide, cross-service, top leadership); Legal & Constitutional Friction added two ceiling moves on the WaPo/AP 31-court-orders-defied investigation. Russian aggression held flat at 62. An index that advances without external provocation is a more serious signal than one responding to an event.
The recent edition-over-edition rate is +5 pts/month (post-QC trajectory 73→78). At this rate, Critical threshold is crossed at the next edition. Even the consolidation scenario (+0.8 pts/month) crosses Critical within three months.
These three predictions were written in March 2024 — before a single vote was cast. They are not commentary. They are a causal architecture: each marker unlocks the next.
Marker One was the precondition. Without a Trump presidency, the chain does not activate. It was confirmed on 5 November 2024.
Marker Two is the mechanism. A fractured military and intelligence apparatus does two things at once: it degrades America's capacity to respond to a crisis, and it signals to adversaries that the window is open. It now stands at 89 out of 100.
Marker Three is the consequence. Russia does not need to manufacture a crisis — it only needs to read the fracture correctly and calculate that the cost of acting is lower than at any point since 1962. That calculation is already underway.
The Cuban Missile Crisis resolved because Marker Two was effectively zero. Kennedy had complete institutional unity. That architecture no longer exists.
A quantitative instrument measuring the structural pre-conditions for civil war in the United States. The CWNS registers 6 out of 7 — published Final is cap-bound at 6 because Military Violence holds below 5 (ADR 0002). Under the hood the Raw moved from 36 to 38 this edition: LG and IC both reached ceiling. The 4-point gap between Pre-Round (10) and the cap-bound Final (6) is the widest in CWNS.A history.
Built independently from the Jamie Index and calibrated against a four-hundred-year historical record, the CWNS corroborates the existing Jamie Index trajectory. Both instruments project to reach their respective maximums within the same calendar window: the Rupture Window of March 2027 to Q4 2027.
“Jamie Coats outlines a chilling scenario ahead based on a model that tracks rising risks of U.S. civil war and a nuclear attack by Russia. You may not agree with every assumption or every risk score, but the transparency of the methodology means you have to explain to yourself where you diverge and why. The book, which incorporates the most recent headlines from Iran, also offers useful markers for interpreting the confusing blizzard of daily news. Most important, it offers advice to investors, public officials and citizens on how to manage these dire risks, and, more importantly, what each of us can do to help turn the course of events in a better direction.”
The Arbroathgroup — Geopolitics & Macroeconomics, Strategy & Insight · Boston, USA
"An early-warning system — identifying inflection points before they become visible in conventional analysis."
"For those of us responsible for allocating capital, managing risk, or shaping strategy, that is where the value lies: not in certainty, but in sharpening awareness, reducing the risk of surprise."
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