Published July 2026 · Window 15 Jun – 14 Jul
| Indicator | Current | Previous | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intelligence Community Purge (Marker II) | 5 / 5 | 4 / 5 | ↓ Deteriorated |
| Congressional Alarm (Marker II) | 5 / 5 | 4 / 5 | ↓ Deteriorated |
| Diplomatic Deterioration (Marker III) | 4 / 5 | 3 / 5 | ↓ Deteriorated |
| China Restraint Factor (Marker III, mitigating) | −2 | −1 | ↑ Strengthened (mitigating) |
The July 2026 reading places the Jamie Index in the Critical band (81–100) for a second consecutive edition, at 83. This month the move came from inside: Marker II — US institutional fracture — rose three points, while Marker III — Russian opportunism — fell two, its first fall since Edition 16. The acting intelligence chief began mass firings across the intelligence community, and Congress passed a war-powers resolution on Iran that the Senate reversed within twenty-four hours under direct presidential pressure. On the Russian side, China delivered its first warning to Moscow against any nuclear use in Ukraine — "very clearly and very firmly, even in ultimatum form," in President Zelenskyy's account — the strongest Chinese restraint signal since the invasion.
Inside the United States, checks that held in prior editions gave way this month: the Supreme Court overruled Humphrey's Executor in its entirety, removing the last shield around independent-agency heads, and the war-powers reversal showed Congress cannot hold a position against the executive for even twenty-four hours. Eight of the twelve Marker II indicators now sit at their ceiling.
P(Crisis) holds at 57%. The Civil War Net Score — our separate measure of the conditions for civil war inside the United States — did not move; it holds at 6/7 for a third consecutive edition, restrained by the one moderator that has not broken: the cohesion of the military.