High Alert Band · 61–80P(Crisis) = 47%+29 pts since inauguration6 pts below Critical entry
Jamie Index Composite & Sub-Indices — April 2024 to April 2026
Jan 2025 = Inauguration (Jamie Index 42) · Apr 2026 = Current reading (Jamie Index 75)
This Month's Reading
The April 2026 reading places the Jamie Index 6 points below Critical band entry (81). The entire +4 point move was driven by Marker II — internal institutional fracture. Marker III, Russian aggression, held flat. An index that advances without external provocation is a more serious signal than one responding to an event.
General Randy George — US Army Chief of Staff — was fired by phone on April 2nd while US forces were engaged in active operations in Iran. No post-WWII precedent exists for removing a service chief during active combat. Also fired the same day: the Army's top training general and the Army's chief chaplain. Five days later, the president posted a threat to destroy every Iranian bridge, power plant, and desalination plant. The DoD Law of War Manual creates a positive obligation to disobey clearly illegal orders — every officer in the chain of command faced an explicit choice. A ceasefire resolved the immediate crisis. The constitutional question remains open.
P(Crisis) reaches 47%. The post-inauguration rate has been revised upward for the third consecutive edition, now standing at 2.2 points/month.
Key Indicators
Indicator
Current
Previous
Movement
Congressional Override Capacity
Critical
Elevated
↓ Deteriorated
Intelligence Community Independence
Elevated
Elevated
— Stable
Military Command Integrity
Critical
Elevated
↓ Deteriorated
Opportunism Window
5 / 5
5 / 5
— Stable
Nuclear Posture
High Alert
High Alert
— Stable
NATO Cohesion
Weakening
Weakening
— Stable
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Trajectory Analysis
Under the baseline scenario, Critical band entry is now projected for August 2026 — one month earlier than the March projection. The post-inauguration average rate has been revised upward for the third consecutive edition, now standing at 2.2 points/month. From JI 75, only 6 points remain before Critical. Three scenario projections, the full indicator breakdown, and the investment signal are available to paid subscribers...
⟨ Full trajectory · Three scenario projections · Investment signal — paid subscribers only ⟩
The April 2026 reading places the Jamie Index 6 points below Critical band entry (81). The entire +4 point move was driven by Marker II — internal institutional fracture. Marker III, Russian aggression, held flat. An index that advances without external provocation is a more serious signal than one responding to an event.
General Randy George — US Army Chief of Staff — was fired by phone on April 2nd while US forces were engaged in active operations in Iran. No post-WWII precedent exists for removing a service chief during active combat. Also fired the same day: the Army's top training general and the Army's chief chaplain. Five days later, the president posted a threat to destroy every Iranian bridge, power plant, and desalination plant. The DoD Law of War Manual creates a positive obligation to disobey clearly illegal orders — every officer in the chain of command faced an explicit choice. A ceasefire resolved the immediate crisis. The constitutional question remains open.
P(Crisis) reaches 47%. The post-inauguration rate has been revised upward for the third consecutive edition, now standing at 2.2 points/month.