Published October 2026 · Window 15 Sep – 14 Oct
| Indicator | Current | Previous | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| US-Allied Intelligence Sharing (Marker III) | 4 / 5 | 3 / 5 | ↓ Deteriorated |
| Alliance Unity on Russia (Marker III) | 4 / 5 | 3 / 5 | ↓ Deteriorated |
| Nuclear Doctrine Changes (Marker III) | 4 / 5 | 4 / 5 | — Held (no doctrine revision) |
| Orders Contested (Marker II) | 4 / 5 | 4 / 5 | — Held (searched, nothing qualified) |
The October 2026 reading places the Jamie Index in the Critical band (81–100) for a fifth consecutive edition, at 88. This month the movement came from one place: the alliance side of the instrument. Marker III rose three points to 75; Marker II held at 97.
Two NATO Cohesion indicators moved together. US-Allied Intelligence Sharing rose from 3 to 4: at talks in Miami, the President's envoys raised cutting off intelligence sharing with Ukraine unless Kyiv halted its strikes on Russian refineries, and US officials telephoned European capitals with the same message. Ukraine then received no early warning from its partners of Russian ballistic-missile strikes on Kyiv on two consecutive nights. The President has denied that sharing was cut, and the indicator stops short of its ceiling for that reason.
Alliance Unity on Russia rose from 3 to 4. On 9 October the USA agreed a deal with Moscow to release Russian diesel on to the world market, easing sanctions; Europe's governments answered by pledging more pressure on Moscow, not less, and Italy's Prime Minister told her parliament the deal was "a very risky choice". A written Russian warning to NATO over Kaliningrad was examined for Nuclear Doctrine Changes and held at 4: no revised doctrine has been published.
P(Crisis) rises to 66%. Marker II did not move — its only two indicators below the ceiling were searched and nothing in the window qualified. The Civil War Net Score — our separate measure of the conditions for civil war inside the United States — holds at 6/7 for a sixth consecutive edition, restrained by the one moderator that has not broken: the cohesion of the military.