Published May 2026 · Window 15 Apr – 11 May (27 days)
| Indicator | Current | Previous | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional Override Capacity | Critical | Elevated | ↓ Deteriorated |
| Intelligence Community Independence | Elevated | Elevated | — Stable |
| Military Command Integrity | Critical | Elevated | ↓ Deteriorated |
| Opportunism Window | 5 / 5 | 5 / 5 | — Stable |
| Nuclear Posture | High Alert | High Alert | — Stable |
| NATO Cohesion | Weakening | Weakening | — Stable |
The May 2026 reading places the Jamie Index 2 points below the Critical threshold (80). The entire +5 point move (post-QC trajectory) was driven by Marker II — internal institutional fracture. Marker III, Russian aggression, held flat. An index that advances without external provocation is a more serious signal than one responding to an event.
This edition the Marker II Chilling Effect cluster reached ceiling on both indicators — the Pentagon-wide chilling effect is now structural across uniformed, civilian, cross-service, and top leadership. The 2 May Washington Post / Associated Press joint investigation documented 31 district-court orders violated in the first fifteen months of the administration; Judge Sunshine Sykes (D.D.C.) wrote that administration officials "seek to erode any semblance of separation of powers." Lawfare frames the structural pattern as The Appellate Void. Both Legal & Constitutional Friction indicators consequently moved to ceiling: Executive–Judicial Conflict and Constitutional Crisis Indicators.
P(Crisis) reaches 50%. The recent edition-over-edition rate is +5 points/month (post-QC trajectory 73 → 78). At this rate, Critical threshold is crossed at the next edition. Even the consolidation scenario (+0.8 pts/month) crosses Critical within three months.