All published research from the Jamie Index programme — the monthly editions, the Marker III calibration work, the Marker II Civil War series, and market commentary.
The Jamie Index is a 0–100 composite of Marker II (US institutional fracture) and Marker III (Russian opportunism), weighted 60/40. Monthly editions are published on Substack. The full methodology and backtest are documented in the Model.
Marker III measures the external threat vector — Russian military aggression and its exploitation of Western institutional fracture. The critical calibration reference is the Cuban Missile Crisis: Black Saturday, October 1962, scored 32 on the composite Jamie Index. The full calibration methodology is documented in the Model.
Marker II measures domestic institutional breakdown — executive-military relations, congressional authority, judicial independence, and the conditions that historically precede state fracture.
The Civil War Net Score applies the Marker II framework to a different question: not what the fracture means for foreign aggression, but what it means for domestic political stability. Eight variables. One threshold. Current score: 6 / 7.
Civil War Net Score → Full AnalysisHow the Jamie Index reads into observable market signals — gold, volatility, and institutional risk pricing.
New research is published to Jamie Index subscribers first. Subscribe to receive each edition and all Marker II articles on publication.
Subscribe at jamieindex.substack.com →