Research
Two instruments. Three pages. Jamie Index Substack editions below.
“Jamie Coats outlines a chilling scenario ahead based on a model that tracks rising risks of U.S. civil war and a nuclear attack by Russia. You may not agree with every assumption or every risk score, but the transparency of the methodology means you have to explain to yourself where you diverge and why. The book, which incorporates the most recent headlines from Iran, also offers useful markers for interpreting the confusing blizzard of daily news. Most important, it offers advice to investors, public officials and citizens on how to manage these dire risks, and, more importantly, what each of us can do to help turn the course of events in a better direction.”
The Arbroathgroup — Geopolitics & Macroeconomics, Strategy & Insight · Boston, USA
Jamie.Capital Research publishes work on two distinct quantitative instruments — and this page is one of three references for them.
JI The Jamie Index measures the conditional probability of a US–Russia crisis (0–100 composite, 25 indicators, monthly editions). CWNS The Civil War Net Score measures structural proximity to civil conflict (0–7 scale, 8 variables, calibrated against four centuries of English-speaking civil-conflict history). Each has its own framework page; this page lists the Jamie Index Substack editions.
The Jamie Index is a 0–100 composite of Marker II (US institutional fracture, 60%) and Marker III (Russian opportunism, 40%). Monthly editions published on Substack. Full methodology in the Jamie Index Framework.
Army Chief fired mid-war. Trump posts threat to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure. DoD Law of War Manual creates explicit obligation to disobey illegal orders. MII jumps to 84. P(Crisis) reaches 47%. Critical band entry: August 2026 baseline.
War powers vote failure. Russia-Iran alliance confirmed. Opportunism Window scores 5/5 for the first time. P(Crisis) reaches 43%.
War powers rupture. Russia false-flag warning at Zaporizhzhia. Post-inauguration escalation rate rises to 1.86 pts/month.
Formal establishment of the Jamie Index. Full backtest April 2024 to January 2026, methodology, and opening trajectory projections.
Why two years were spent building a geopolitical crisis index — and why the first reading matters.
The critical calibration reference is the Cuban Missile Crisis: Black Saturday, October 1962, scored 32 on the composite Jamie Index. Full calibration methodology in the Jamie Index Framework.
The closest the world came to nuclear war in the twentieth century scored 32 on the composite Jamie Index. The current reading of 71 is more than double — not because Russian aggression exceeds 1962 levels, but because the institutional architecture that resolved the CMC can no longer be assumed.
PublishedWolf's correction of Krugman: not 1688 but 1641. Establishes the six-stage Charles I pattern and maps it onto the Trump/USA 2026 sequence.
PublishedThe English Civil War was overlaid with religious conflict. The contemporary woke/unwoke divide as its structural analogue. Money can be divided; doctrine cannot.
PublishedWhat El-Erian and Dimon's October 2024 comments reveal about where institutional risk thinking was heading — and what a Jamie Index at 71 implies for gold's next move.
PublishedNew research is published to subscribers first. Subscribe to receive each edition on publication.
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