The Jamie Index is a 0–100 composite of Marker II (US institutional fracture) and Marker III (Russian opportunism), weighted 60/40. Monthly editions are published on Substack. The full methodology and backtest are documented in the Model.

Substack · jamieindex.substack.com
17
Latest Edition · April 2026
Army Chief fired mid-war. Trump posts threat to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure. DoD Law of War Manual creates explicit obligation to disobey illegal orders. MII jumps to 84 — Loyalty-Based Appointments, Orders Contested, Constitutional Crisis Markers, and Institutional Morale all move. P(Crisis) reaches 47%. Critical band entry: August 2026 baseline.
16
March 2026
War powers vote failure. Russia-Iran alliance confirmed. Opportunism Window scores 5/5 for the first time. P(Crisis) reaches 43%. Timeline to Critical band entry compressed to September 2026.
15
March 2026
War powers rupture. Russia false-flag warning at Zaporizhzhia. Post-inauguration escalation rate rises to 1.86 points per month. P(Crisis) holds at 40%.
14
February 2026 · Inaugural Edition
Formal establishment of the Jamie Index. Full backtest April 2024 to January 2026, methodology, and opening trajectory projections.
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Pre-Launch · March 2026
Why two years were spent building a geopolitical crisis index — and why the first reading matters. The case for a structural instrument over political commentary.

Marker III measures the external threat vector — Russian military aggression and its exploitation of Western institutional fracture. The critical calibration reference is the Cuban Missile Crisis: Black Saturday, October 1962, scored 32 on the composite Jamie Index. The full calibration methodology is documented in the Model.

Cuban Missile Crisis Calibration · Substack
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Calibration Anchor · October 1962
The closest the world came to nuclear war in the twentieth century scored 32 on the composite Jamie Index. The current reading of 71 is more than double — not because Russian aggression today exceeds 1962 levels, but because the institutional architecture that resolved the CMC can no longer be assumed.

Marker II measures domestic institutional breakdown — executive-military relations, congressional authority, judicial independence, and the conditions that historically precede state fracture.

Civil War Net Score
A quantitative instrument for measuring structural proximity to civil conflict

The Civil War Net Score applies the Marker II framework to a different question: not what the fracture means for foreign aggression, but what it means for domestic political stability. Eight variables. One threshold. Current score: 6 / 7.

Civil War Net Score → Full Analysis
Published
1
Substack · Published
Wolf's correction of Krugman: not 1688 but 1641. Establishes the six-stage Charles I pattern and maps it onto the Trump/USA 2026 sequence — Operation Epic Fury as the Bishops' War, the war supplemental as the Parliament confrontation. The Strafford lesson. The Fischer layer.
2
Substack · Published
The English Civil War was overlaid with religious conflict. The contemporary woke/unwoke divide as its structural analogue — worked through as an analytical claim, not a political one. Money can be divided; doctrine cannot.

How the Jamie Index reads into observable market signals — gold, volatility, and institutional risk pricing.

Published · Substack
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Gold · March 2026
What El-Erian and Dimon's October 2024 comments reveal about where institutional risk thinking was heading — and what a Jamie Index at 71 implies for gold's next move.

New research is published to Jamie Index subscribers first. Subscribe to receive each edition and all Marker II articles on publication.