What To Do

Guidance for families, companies, and investors  ·  Edition 17  ·  9 April 2026
75/ 100

Jamie Index — Edition 17 · 9 April 2026

Marker II (US institutional fracture): 77  ·  Marker III (Russian opportunism): 62

The Opportunism Window — Russia's active exploitation of US disarray — scores 5/5 for the first time in the two-year backtest. The Senate voted down the war powers resolution on March 4. Congressional constraint on executive military action is at its post-WWII nadir.

High Alert Band
P(Crisis) = 47%
6 pts to Critical threshold
How to read this page. The Jamie Index is not a prediction. It is a probability instrument. JI 75 does not mean crisis is coming — it means the structural conditions that make crisis possible are more present than at any time since 1972. The guidance below is calibrated to those conditions. It is structured preparation, not alarm. The investor who panics at JI 75 is as poorly served as the investor who ignores it.
Band Guide For Families For Companies For Investors
Reference

Band Guide — know which scenario you are in

Every action on this page is calibrated to a band. The table below is a permanent reference — check your band, act accordingly. You are currently in the High Alert Band (61–80).

Band
What It Means
Family / Individual
Investor / Company
0–20
Low
Institutional norms holding. Stability scenario. No structural escalation detected.
No action required. Standard awareness.
Standard allocation. No geopolitical contingency planning required.
21–40
Moderate
Stability–Volatility transition. Indicators accumulating but not dominant.
Review documents and plans. No urgency.
Initial hedging warranted. Companies begin supply-chain scenario mapping.
41–60
Elevated
Volatility scenario active. Meaningful escalation underway. Still reversible.
Begin practical preparation. Geographic optionality review.
Asymmetric hedges appropriate. Companies run operational continuity workshops.
61–80
High
← You are here
Volatility–Disruption transition. Structural damage occurring. Difficult to reverse without major intervention.
Preparation is active, not theoretical. Geographic optionality exercised. Family planning completed.
Capital preservation priority. Brazil allocation 10–15%. Companies activate contingency protocols.
81–100
Critical
Disruption–Crisis. Institutional safeguards actively failing. Historical analogues are pre-conflict periods.
Geographic relocation actively in motion. Pre-positioned contingency active.
Full crisis positioning. Companies in continuity execution. Maximum real-asset allocation.
For Families

Family answers — what to do now

At JI 75, the appropriate family response is structured, methodical preparation — not urgency, not panic. The goal is to ensure that if the index moves toward 81, you have already done the thinking and completed the groundwork. These steps are measured in weekends, not emergencies.

Documents & Identity
Get your papers in order

Preparation begins with documentation. These steps cost nothing and take an afternoon.

  • Ensure all passports are current with at least 18 months validity
  • Apply for second citizenship or residency if eligible — most processes take 12–24 months, start now
  • Gather and digitise birth certificates, marriage certificates, property deeds, tax records
  • Store encrypted copies in at least two geographically separate locations
  • Review beneficiary designations on all financial accounts
Geographic Optionality
Know where you would go

You do not need to move. You need to know what you would do if you chose to — or needed to.

  • Identify one country outside the North Atlantic arc where you could legally live and work
  • Understand the residency process, cost, and timeline now — not at JI 81
  • Southern Hemisphere democracies with resource security: Brazil, Uruguay, Chile, New Zealand, Portugal
  • If you have family or professional ties to any of these countries, explore them first
  • Visit before you need to. Optionality exercised in comfort beats optionality exercised in haste
Brazilian Visa, Tax & Residency

Thinking about Brazil for your family? Miradouro Asset Management, with its network of trusted advisors, can support your research and planning — visas, tax, and investments.

Start the conversation →
Financial Resilience
Diversify your financial footprint

This is about ensuring your financial life is not entirely dependent on a single jurisdiction's stability.

  • Ensure at least three to six months of expenses are accessible in liquid form outside equity markets
  • Open a bank account in a second jurisdiction — straightforward in the EU, Brazil, or Uruguay
  • Reduce reliance on assets that require functioning Western financial infrastructure to access
  • If you hold significant real estate in conflict-adjacent zones, review your exposure
  • Review your employer's geopolitical risk — government contractors face different risks than private companies
Information Discipline
Know what to watch — and what to ignore

At JI 75, the greatest risk is not ignorance. It is noise. Most daily news is not a leading indicator for what this framework tracks.

  • Follow the Jamie Index monthly — one reading, once a month, against the methodology
  • The two numbers that matter: Marker II (institutional fracture) and Marker III (Russian opportunism)
  • Ignore daily cycles that do not change the structural reading
  • Watch: War Powers Act invocations, Insurrection Act discussions, direct Russian action against NATO infrastructure
  • If Marker III crosses 75 without a diplomatic offset, that is a structural change worth re-evaluating your posture
Family Planning
Have the conversation

The most important preparatory step is the simplest and most neglected: talking to the people who would be affected.

  • Have an explicit family conversation about what your household would do if conditions deteriorated to JI 81
  • Agree a geographic contingency — even a provisional one — before you need it
  • Identify the trigger that would move you from "watch" to "act" — and write it down
  • Children in school, elderly parents, professional obligations: map the constraints now
Perspective
What JI 75 does not mean

Clarity about what this framework does not say matters as much as what it does.

  • JI 75 does not mean war is imminent or certain — it means structural preconditions are more present than at any time since 1972
  • P(Crisis) = 47% means 53% of trajectories do not lead to the worst case
  • The Cuban Missile Crisis resolved from Marker III = 79 — resolution remains possible
  • The goal of preparation is not to predict the worst case. It is to be undisrupted by it if it arrives
  • People who prepared intelligently for 2008 were not harmed by being wrong. They were ready
For Companies

Corporate answers — what to do now

At JI 75, organisations face structural risk that individual planning does not address: supply chain fragility, workforce geographic exposure, regulatory discontinuity, and the need to communicate coherently with boards and investors about geopolitical tail risk.

Operational Exposure
Map your organisation's risk profile

Corporate exposure at JI 75 is specific to your footprint, supply chain, and sector. Generic risk frameworks do not capture it.

  • Identify which supply chains cross the NATO–Russia conflict perimeter
  • Map workforce concentration in jurisdictions with elevated Marker II readings
  • Review contracts with government counterparties — these face different continuity risks than commercial contracts
  • Assess your technology stack's dependence on US-domiciled infrastructure and cloud services
  • Review insurance and force-majeure clauses against JI 75-era scenarios
Board & Investor Communication
Speak coherently about geopolitical risk

Boards and investors are asking questions that standard risk reports do not answer. The Jamie Index provides a structured, methodology-backed instrument for that conversation.

  • Use the Jamie Index as a quantified reference in board risk registers — it is citable and evidenced
  • Prepare a one-page geopolitical risk annexe to standard board packs, keyed to the current JI reading
  • Brief your CFO and CRO on the Marker II / Marker III distinction
  • ESG and governance frameworks increasingly require explicit geopolitical risk disclosures — this gives you the structure
Jamie Capital — Corporate Consultancy
Run a Jamie Index workshop for your organisation

Jamie Capital refers companies to specialist consultants who facilitate a structured half-day or full-day workshop, tailored to your sector and geographic footprint. The workshop covers: reading and applying the Jamie Index to your specific risk profile, supply chain and workforce scenario planning at JI 75, board communication and governance preparation, and contingency trigger-mapping for the transition to JI 81.

  • Format: Half-day or full-day, on-site or remote
  • Tailored to sector: finance, technology, logistics, manufacturing, professional services
  • Outputs: risk register annex, scenario action plan, board briefing template
  • Available in English and Portuguese
Contact Jamie Capital →
For Investors

Portfolio answers — what to do now

At JI 75, the structural conditions for a geopolitical hedge are more present than at any point since 1972. The framework points toward Brazilian real assets as the primary refuge — geographic distance from the North Atlantic arc, resource self-sufficiency, and liquid capital markets. The full investment thesis, asset-class breakdown, and portfolio review are handled by Miradouro Asset Management, the licensed investment manager for Jamie Index-referenced portfolios.

The following is not investment advice. It is a structured framework for thinking about geopolitical tail risk. Consult qualified financial and legal advisors before making investment decisions.
The Core Argument
The window is measured in months, not years

At JI 42 (January 2025) the asymmetric return was at its maximum — Brazilian real assets priced for Stability, institutional fracture just beginning. At JI 63 (February 2026) it had narrowed but remained meaningful. At JI 75, with Critical band entry projected August 2026 under the baseline scenario, this is the late-cycle positioning window.

The investor who waits for JI 81 to act buys the consensus at peak cost with the most compressed timeline. The repricing from Stability to Disruption will have already occurred. That window does not reopen. The current buffer is 6 points at a rate of 2.2 points per month.

Licensed Partner
Miradouro Asset Management
What changes at JI 81. The Critical band triggers the framework's full crisis posture — maximum allocation to geographic dislocation, resource autonomy, and real asset foundation. The investor positioned at JI 75 enters that threshold with a running position. The investor who waits builds at consensus, at peak cost, with the most compressed timeline. Contact Miradouro to discuss the JI 81 transition protocol specifically.
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