Action Framework · Edition 18 · May 2026

What To Do

Every action calibrated to a band. Know which scenario you are in.

78Jamie Index

At Jamie Index 78, the appropriate response is structured, methodical preparation — moving from research into action. From JI 78, only 2 points remain before the Critical threshold (80). At the recent +5 pts/month rate, Critical is crossed at the next edition. Even the consolidation scenario (+0.8 pts/month) crosses Critical within three months.

High Alert · 61–80
P(Crisis) = 50%
Band Guide — Know Which Scenario You Are In
Five Bands · 0–100 Scale
0–20Stability3%Normal operations. No geopolitical hedge required.
21–40Watch8%Begin monitoring. No action required yet.
41–60Elevated20%Review exposures. Initial hedge considerations.
61–80High Alert ← Now50%Structured preparation. Family, corporate, and portfolio actions apply now.
81–100Critical70%+No historical precedent of recovery. Emergency review.
Families · JI 78
What To Do Now
−

At JI 78, two points from Critical, the appropriate family response is structured, methodical preparation moving into action. The goal is to ensure that as the index moves toward Critical, you have already done the thinking and completed the groundwork.

01Document review. Ensure passports, identification, and legal documents for all family members are current and accessible. Scan and store in secure cloud storage.
02Jurisdictional optionality. Research residency and citizenship pathways in stable jurisdictions — Portugal, Brazil, Uruguay. At JI 78, two points from Critical, this is research moving into selection.
03Financial diversification. Review concentration of assets in USD-denominated accounts. The framework points toward Brazilian real assets as a geographic hedge.
04Communication plan. Establish a family communication protocol that does not depend on a single telecommunications provider or network.
05Subscribe to the index. At JI 78, the most important action is tracking the trajectory. Subscribe at jamieindex.substack.com.
Companies · JI 78
What To Do Now
+

At JI 78, organisations face structural risk that individual planning does not address: supply chain fragility, workforce geographic exposure, regulatory discontinuity, and the need to communicate coherently with boards about geopolitical tail risk.

01Supply chain audit. Map single-jurisdiction dependencies in critical inputs. At JI 78, identification is the task — not reorganisation.
02Board briefing. If your board has not received a structured geopolitical risk briefing in the past six months, that is the first action. Enquire about a bespoke briefing →
03Regulatory exposure review. Identify business lines with high regulatory concentration in single jurisdictions where executive authority over regulatory bodies is contested.
04Key personnel resilience. Review geographic concentration of leadership. Organisations with all decision-making capacity in a single US city carry unpriced tail risk.
Investors · JI 78
What To Do Now
+

At JI 78, the structural conditions for a geopolitical hedge are more present than at any point since 1972. The framework points toward Brazilian real assets as the primary refuge. The full investment thesis and portfolio review are handled by Miradouro Asset Management.

01Review Western-denominated concentration. Critical band entry (JI 80) is a liquidity event signal for Western-denominated assets. The repricing occurs before any kinetic event.
02Brazilian real asset allocation. At JI 78, the framework supports initial allocation review toward Brazilian real assets, commodity-backed positions, and non-NATO jurisdictional hedges.
03Do not wait for JI 80. The investor who waits for Critical band entry buys the consensus at peak cost. The current buffer is 2 points at +5 points/month recent rate — approximately one edition.
04Subscribe for the investment signal. The paid subscription includes the monthly investment signal. Subscribe at jamieindex.substack.com.