The Rupture Countdown
A public framework for recognising, in advance, whether Russia could come to judge that it might use a nuclear weapon without fear of a response from the USA. By Jamie Coats, Ido Kalev and David Thurgate.
- 10More Fracturing
- 9Alienation Organises
- 8War Unfunded
- 7Parliament Lost
- 6Executive Overreach
- 5Move to Remove
- 4“Illegal” Orders Disputed
- 3Duelling Counter Commands
- 2Orders and Sackings Refused
- 1US Troops Face US Troops
- 0Command Contested
How far strain inside the USA has gone. Zero means no one holds the president’s command undisputed.
- 5US Deterrence Not Credible. Keep the chain of command, succession and nuclear release authority visibly settled, and keep the standing warning to Russia on the record.
- 4NATO Split. Answer a member’s formal request within 72 hours, and name Russia as the adversary when it is.
- 3China Will Not Restrain. Ask Beijing, publicly and privately, to restate its opposition to nuclear use and to communicate that position directly to Moscow.
- 2Russia Tests the US Response. Answer every probe through one lawful channel with one voice, and make clear that nuclear use would bring a US response.
- 1Russia Nuclear Force Ready. Respond decisively and credibly to a verified departure from Russia’s normal posture.
What Russia would need before it used a nuclear weapon. Only the fifth lights the flame, and Russia could reach it by three routes: command breaks down; signals from Washington and Beijing; or a direct US assurance.
- ·Not a forecast and not a probability. Each reading is a declared judgement on public evidence, with its assumptions published.
- ·Not calculated. It stands beside the Jamie Index and the Civil War Net Score, and is kept separate from both.
- ·It judges evidence, not parties or candidates.
- ·It makes no judgement that the deterrence of the USA is weak. The threshold for publishing a reading is not the threshold for government action: governments may have to act while uncertainty remains.
With thanks to Tom Brookes, in a personal capacity, who reviewed earlier drafts. The framework, and any errors in it, are the authors’.
Every assessment, and every alert when a stage falls or a condition is laid, is published at rupturecountdown.com, on the Jamie Index Substack.
Follow it at rupturecountdown.com