The Jamie Index

Measuring the rupture

A 0–100 instrument, updated monthly, measuring whether the structural conditions for a US–Russia crisis are in place. Not sentiment. Not headlines. Structural conditions — the kind that are difficult to reverse.

75 Jamie Index

High Alert Band · 61–80

P(Crisis) = 47% · +33 pts since inauguration

Current Reading →

Cuban Missile Crisis scored 32. The current reading is 75. More than double.

The Causal Chain

Three Predictions · Written March 2024

Marker One Trump wins the 2024 election ✓ Confirmed · 5 Nov 2024

Marker Two His administration fractures the American military and intelligence apparatus from within Ongoing · 77 / 100

Marker Three Russia reads that fracture and calculates the moment has come to act Ongoing · 62 / 100

What Professionals Say

Senior International Banking Executive · Major US Bank

"An early-warning system — identifying inflection points before they become visible in conventional analysis."

"For those of us responsible for allocating capital, managing risk, or shaping strategy, that is where the value lies: not in certainty, but in sharpening awareness, reducing the risk of surprise."

New · Civil War Net Score

April 2026 · Inaugural Reading

The Civil War Net Score Launches at 6 out of 7

A new quantitative instrument measuring the structural pre-conditions for civil war in the United States. At its inaugural reading, the CWNS registers 6 out of 7 — one structural variable below the level that preceded both the English Civil War of 1642 and the American Civil War of 1860.

Built independently from the Jamie Index and calibrated against a four-hundred-year historical record, the CWNS immediately corroborates the existing Jamie Index trajectory. Both instruments project to reach their respective maximums within the same calendar window: the Rupture Window of March 2027 to Q4 2027.

Historical Calibration · 1600–2028

Read the Full Analysis → All Research