The Jamie Index

Measuring the rupture

A 0–100 instrument, updated monthly, measuring whether the structural conditions for a US–Russia crisis are in place. Not sentiment. Not headlines. Structural conditions — the kind that are difficult to reverse.

71 Jamie Index
High Alert Band · 61–80
P(Crisis) = 43%  ·  +29 pts since inauguration
Current Reading →
Cuban Missile Crisis scored 32. The current reading is 71. More than double.
The Causal Chain
Three Predictions · Written March 2024
Marker One Trump wins the 2024 election ✓ Confirmed · 5 Nov 2024
Marker Two His administration fractures the American military and intelligence apparatus from within Ongoing · 77 / 100
Marker Three Russia reads that fracture and calculates the moment has come to act Ongoing · 62 / 100
What Professionals Say
Senior International Banking Executive · Major US Bank

"An early-warning system — identifying inflection points before they become visible in conventional analysis."

"For those of us responsible for allocating capital, managing risk, or shaping strategy, that is where the value lies: not in certainty, but in sharpening awareness, reducing the risk of surprise."